Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 41.245360 45.060197 49.321360 54.487803 60.658457 67.894666 77.183493
2025-08-03 36.310666 41.191448 47.030228 54.702922 64.807531 78.131165 97.964359
2025-08-10 33.229936 38.494884 45.044356 54.076898 66.737209 84.832984 114.982648
2025-08-17 30.581598 35.967125 42.861504 52.724425 67.246894 89.452209 130.429167
2025-08-24 28.517199 33.931042 41.017798 51.456187 67.462949 93.405027 146.048503
2025-08-31 27.127885 32.639025 40.010326 51.185952 69.047930 99.850813 169.576728
2025-09-07 26.144713 31.794350 39.510753 51.549896 71.625794 108.632716 203.852204
2025-09-14 24.963516 30.586828 38.382036 50.798525 72.165580 113.639632 232.562972
2025-09-21 23.662881 29.132457 36.787039 49.144686 70.858504 114.520511 250.067102
2025-09-28 22.622778 27.987209 35.567564 47.975567 70.256996 116.786828 274.929592
2025-10-05 22.648324 28.346647 36.589431 50.548909 77.036309 138.213831 412.268020
2025-10-12 22.289552 28.124593 36.705212 51.596961 81.037149 154.710559 586.730400
2025-10-19 22.008602 28.056599 37.139496 53.415042 87.427655 183.055485 1130.690842
2025-10-26 21.402692 27.473941 36.723393 53.669892 90.528526 203.961411 2310.193276
2025-11-02 20.684185 26.676619 35.895651 53.048009 91.426250 217.831936 5472.535047
2025-11-09 19.891709 25.729858 34.766696 51.744301 90.430053 223.782325 16594.892223
2025-11-16 19.171954 24.864009 33.723276 50.514174 89.418125 229.421306 NaN
2025-11-23 18.680063 24.328682 33.198824 50.252960 90.874437 248.359993 NaN
2025-11-30 18.330196 23.997241 32.994465 50.605352 94.061552 280.539077 NaN
2025-12-07 17.819615 23.392506 32.291600 49.877410 94.113473 295.386471 NaN
2025-12-14 17.192514 22.583322 31.203044 48.274107 91.406688 290.410025 NaN
2025-12-21 16.675529 21.933364 30.364283 47.140027 89.934733 293.496989 NaN
2025-12-28 16.768207 22.252800 31.216787 49.635482 99.898649 402.827709 NaN